Research

My research examines how firms respond to policy distortions and institutional constraints in developing economies, with a focus on trade, crisis policy, and commercial dispute resolution.

Job Market Paper

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Pakistan

with Zehra Farooq (FBR, Pakistan) Draft, October 2025 — full paper coming soon

Abstract: We study how manufacturing firms adjust input choices in response to improved export-market access. We examine Pakistan’s exposure to the European Union’s GSP+ preferential trade agreement, which substantially reduced tariffs on Pakistani exports across key manufacturing sectors. Using administrative tax records linked to firm-level tariff exposure, we exploit variation in pre-liberalization protection to track firm responses along multiple margins. We find substantial heterogeneity by baseline productivity. More productive firms expand capital investment and maintain employment, while less productive firms contract wage bills without corresponding reinvestment. Despite an overall increase in firm exit rates, we find no evidence of disproportionate attrition among low-productivity firms. These findings suggest that liberalization reallocates resources toward more productive incumbents, but that adjustment operates primarily through input reoptimization and within-firm restructuring rather than selection out of the market. The results highlight the intensive margin of incumbent adjustment as an important channel through which preferential market access reshapes manufacturing activity in developing economies.

Working Papers

Causal Impact of Barter Trade Policy during a Foreign Exchange Reserves Crisis

with Fraz Ahmed (Carnegie Mellon University) Draft, December 2025 · PDF

Abstract: When Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves collapsed in 2023, the government introduced a barter trade mechanism allowing direct goods-for-goods exchange with Afghanistan, bypassing frozen banking channels. Using transaction-level customs data and product-level variation in barter eligibility, we provide causal evidence that alternative payment mechanisms can mitigate crisis-induced trade disruptions. Barter-eligible products experienced 30% higher export quantities during the crisis peak relative to ineligible products. These effects were crisis-contingent, emerging during reserve depletion and dissipating as conventional payment systems resumed. The mechanism operated through real trade expansion with minimal price distortion, demonstrating that well-designed temporary interventions can sustain trade during payment system failures without generating persistent distortions.

Towards Win-Win: Evidence from Commercial Dispute Resolution in India

with Manaswini Rao (University of Delaware), Sandhya Seetharaman, and Raghav Pandey Draft, November 2025 · PDF

Abstract: Resolving a contractual dispute through mediation could preempt the uncertainty and cost of litigation, and thus could be a strategy to reduce pending case backlogs in courts. We leverage random assignment of commercial and contractual cases to judges in newly created commercial courts in India to examine the impact of judge-led mediation on case outcomes and litigating firms’ profits. Resolution through mutual reconciliation (“settlement”) rather than a full-length trial, driven by assignment to a settlement-prone judge, is negatively associated with case duration and pending status. We estimate a large, positive effect of judge settlement-propensity on the profitability of plaintiff firms. Defendants experience a negative effect around the timing of suing, but settlement reverses the trend, potentially stemming the losses associated with lengthy and uncertain trial outcomes.